Tips For 12/5/2022

Make no mistake this is a hard race to pick. After spending a great deal of time assessing the runners, I am siding with El Bodegon. The O’Brien horse is likely to be a big danger as is Royal Patronage who has been crying out for a longer trip. Both Desert Crown and Magisterial are also going to be hard to beat. El Bodegon can take advantage of his excellent draw. He beat Stone Age by 1 ½ lengths at 1m2f last time on rubbish ground. He has raced exclusively on going with a bit of cut but is bred to better on good going or better. I expect a good run from him. 

I could have gone EW in the 4.10 but I prefer the idea of splitting the stake and backing both Project Dante and Last Crusader. I have used the excellent dutching calculator on Oddschecker.com. Dutching is where you back 2 or more horses in a way that ensures equal profit no matter which of your selection's wins. I really like Project Dante but I would like to see him run after his recent wind operation to be fully confident. He is a fast horse with a good draw. I picked out the excellent Last Crusader as back up as the drop back in trip should suit him. 

I’m predicting a good run from Wild Mountain in the 8.20 tonight. He has an awesome draw with 30.4% of winners coming from stall two in 11 runner races at this distance. The sensational William Buick is in the saddle which is a definite bonus.  He currently has a 34% strike rate riding 3yo on turf this season and a 22% strike rate for all rides in the last 14 days. The trainers are in good form too. The rise in trip should not be something to be concerned about. His sire Aclaim is closely related to a 1000 guineas winner and 1m is the most successful distance raced by the progeny of the sire of the dam. He’s been won or placed in his last 3 outing and should be a good EW bet. 

3.35 El Bodegon Win 7/2 Bet365 Bog (last night 10/3) 

4.10 York Project Dante 6/1/Last Crusader 17/ dutched 3.03/1 Bet365 Bog (Last night 8/1 & 10/1) 

(use www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator) 

8.20 Newmarket Wild Mountain 9/1 EW 1/5 1-3 Bet365 Bog (Last night 7/1)