11/5/2022
I would not put it past the mighty Godolphin to leave us all looking a bit surprised Pikachu after the horses cross the line in the 1.50 York. Global Storm performed well in Dubai this year winning a £36k handicap that had a bigger prize than today and coming third in a group 2. I would have liked him without the claimer onboard! The excellent Harry Davies appears to be better than his claim so will be able to knock a few pounds off the top weight.
The horse who has the best chance of winning the 2.35 Newton Abbot is Scrumpy Boy. After winning by 26 lengths last time the handicapper exacted his revenge by raising him 13lb. I will be surprised if the rise is actually enough to stop the likable 10yo as he was relatively unexposed before the last race. It looks like the first-time cheek pieces were the secret sauce and he can do it again.
3.00 York Highfield Princess has a good ew chance and I took her at 16/1 last night. I was pleased to see the price had dropped to 10/1 this morning. This horse is certainly worth an ew wager at a decent price in a strong field. She has mainly raced at 7f but there is reason to believe she can handle shorter trips. Last time she raced over 6f she came 6th in a 20-runner group 1 finishing 3 ¼ lengths behind Godolphin's Creative Force. She was recently tried in class 3 at 5f. She finished second by ½ length to a horse who won in a brilliant time. Her trainer thinks she can do this and the evidence is there to see.
Currently on the drift having slipped from 7/1 to 9/1 I think Pearl Beach looks like good value in the 4.45pm. She has only finished worse than 3rd two times in the last ten runs. All the horses in front of her in the betting have a pretty rubbish draw and this will help her chances winning under topweight. Her trainer William Knight is having a good run at the moment with 4 wins from the last 13 runners (31%) in the last 14 days. He is getting something right with his older horse this year as currently they are his best performers
To tell the truth I am a little concerned about the drift in price on my selection for the 5.15 York. Mersea has drifted out to 12/1. The reason this concerns me more than most is that the trainer is the cunning Grant Tuer. Grant is a master of picking the right races for his horses and the good things usually attract good market support. She is one of the few horses in the race who have any experience and I think her 2nd at Beverley during her last run puts her in a good position to win this.
1.50 Global Storm 5/1 EW Extra Bet365 1/5 1-6
2.35 Newton Abbot Scrumpy Boy 2/1 win Bet365 bog
3.00 York Highfield Princess 9/1 EW Bet365 bog 9/1 1/5 1-3
4.45 York Pearl Beach 9/1 EW Bet365 bog 1/5 1-4
5.15 York Mersea 12/1 EW Bet365 bog 1/5 1-3