The Breeders Cup Friday 5/11/2021
The Breeders Cup 2021
It’s that time of the year again. The Breeders Cup springs in to action at the weekend beginning on Friday night in the UK. Some of the best horses on the planet will battle it out for prestigious honours and huge prize money. These races are a real test and will be run at a relentless pace. Only the best will overcome the challenges presented by Del Mar.
There are some horses I would have loved to have seen here such as St Mark’s Basilica, Snowfall, Baaeed, Adayar, Hurricane Lane, Inspiral and Native Trail.
When I first became a bookie 20 odd years ago I remember nobody that came into the shop was really interested in the Breeders Cup. As the shops were not open that late I would take the wall display papers home and spread them around my room and make my picks ringing up my bookmaker as I made them.
I have not been a bookie for some years now but I find myself presented with a world of information and video replays talking to an American guy on Twitter about the races. It’s interesting how things have progressed.
This article covers the races at Del Mar from 8.30pm to 12.30am on Friday night through to early Saturday morning. I appreciate the times will be different for my international readers.
8:30
5f Senator Ken Maddy Stakes (Listed Race) (2yo+) (Turf) (2yo+)
I spent quite some time looking at the video form for the contenders taking part in this race and I have a preference for Hear My Prayer. I was really torn between Superstition and Hear My Prayer but I feel Hear My Prayer has the edge over her main market rival.
The interesting piece of form is that they have both raced against the front runner Bulletproof One over 5f at Del Mar on the Turf. They are likely to face a front runner at least as fast on Friday and I think Hear My Prayer will be better placed in the field to take it on as Superstition has a poor draw. Hear my prayer looks like a gritty horse that has gears. If it comes down to a head to head battle down the straight I would choose her to prevail.
Hear My Prayer Win 7/2 Bet365
9:50
5f Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 2) (2yo) (Turf) (2yo)
I have been following Go Bears Go he is one of my favourite 2yo. I think he is a brilliant sprinter. He was doing really well at 5f before he got moved up to the 6f trip.
He won a 5f class 3 novice stakes on his debut by 1 1/2 lengths after making all and being eased down at the finish. That was on soft ground.
On his next outing he raced in a Group 2 race on good to firm going. He led his group on the far side of the course and was leading the race from 2 furlongs out but he was headed in the final stride by Perfect Power. Perfect Power has won 2 6f Group 1 races since then, one of which he beat Go Bears Go by 1 Length.
Then came the 6f Group 2 railways stakes contested on good ground. He looked like he wanted to make all and settled for racing prominently. He won the race by 1 ¼ lengths proving he is an extremely versatile horse who can run well on any surface.
Go Bears Go has had a good season since almost winning a Group 1 but I feel he will welcome the return to Group 2 level at 5f where I feel he has unfinished business.
He has a fantastic draw at the weekend and will be happiest racing at the front either leading or stalking. Go Bears Go is gritty as hell and will have speed on tap. His price is frankly silly at the 25/1 I tipped on Twitter last night. Not only is it a great win price but there would be a tasty return if he were to be placed.
After following him all season it feels kind of surreal to be sat here recommending him for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I am so pleased he will take his place in the line-up.
Recommended Twitter 2/11/2021 Go Bears Go EW 25/1 Bet365 1/5 1-3 bog
Current price: 20/1 Bet365 1/5 1-3
10:30
1m½f Netjets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Main Track) (Dirt) (2yo)
It’s quite possible Echo Zulu can be beaten and I do not think her price represents enough value given the capabilities of the other runners.
I like the proven Group 1 winner Juju’s Map. Last time out this filly destroyed a Group 1 field at Keeneland in a manner that suggests she is very special indeed. She cantered up the straight while the other horses looked all out winning by 4 ½ lengths. She was just having a bit of fun and looked a different class to the others. I firmly believe she has a lot more than she has shown left to show us.
Juju’s Map will get out well and can handle the turn at Del Mar with ease. If anything thing does challenge her cantering up the straight I feel she will be able to produce frightening levels of acceleration.
Juju’s Map Win approx. 7/2 Betregal
11:10
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Turf) (2yo) 1m
The only reason I am suggesting an each way bet for my selection in this race is because it has a stinker of a draw. Horses can win from it but they have to get the rub of the green. The low milage Mise En Scene looks to be a filly that is still progressing and fresh in her coat.
She has the same breeding as St Mark’s Basilica being a Siyouni x Galileo cross albeit from a different dam. She has speed from Siyouni and staying power from Galileo.
Her last race was brilliant finishing just 3 lengths behind the magnificent Inspiral who surely will win the 1000 Guineas next year. She was a bit short of room in the race and can give an even better showing here.
If any jockey is going to make a difference on a 2yo then it is Oisin Murphy the British Champion Jockey. He is worried about the draw but thinks a lot of the filly and says hopefully she will perform with great credit.
I wouldn’t recommend a big bet on this one as the draw will be hard to beat but it’s worth a shot as she is likely to progress.
Miss En Scene EW 10/1 Skybet 1/5 1-5
11:50
1m½f TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (Grade 1) (2yo C & G) (Dirt) (2yo)
Now Jack Christopher has been pulled out I am torn between Pinehurst and Jasper Great who both have a great draw according to the summer stats provided by the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.
I’m going to go for the upset! Jasper Great is coming out of a stall that has a great hit rate and I think he will try to make all! He made virtually all in his last race. He quickened clear in the last furlong and pulled out a winning distance of 10 lengths. It’s possible this one may be a superstar.
He is likely to have come on for the run having contested only one race and it will be interesting to see how he has progressed
His jockey Yuichi Fukunaga is in blazing form in Japan with a 36% win rate in the last 14 days with 4 wins from 11 rides.
Jasper Great EW 14/1 SkyBet 1/5 1-4
12:30
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) (2yo) 1m
I’m having trouble separating the two Charlie Appleby runners and I think he is too. I have been caught out in this situation before most notably when Yibir beat Kemari at York. If one of the horses is not a designated pacemaker then it means he can’t decide.
William Buick has the choice to ride either and he has been known to get on the wrong horse. The evergreen Frankie Dettori will be riding Albahr which is a particularly strong jockey booking. Both horses have a good draw
Albahr has a plum draw looking at the stats for the summer at Del Mar. Draw 2 was the best performing draw with a 20% win rate. Post position 8 or below seems to be the best with draws 2, 3 and 5 standing out in the stats. He is proven over a mile at Group 1 level and raced on the same type of firm going which he will encounter at Del Mar when winning his win and you’re in slot in Canada. Charlie says he has good experience and that if it gets rough on the bends he will be able to handle himself.
Modern Games has an average draw looking at the figures and getting the calculator out. There was no dead rail bias in the summer but it is interesting that the 1 draw only has half the success rate compared to stall 2. I attribute this to slow starting horses getting trapped in traffic against the rail. Also if a horse is trapped on the rail running fast it might have to slow a little to take the tight turn fast enough potentially losing position.
He has not won at higher than Group 3 Level and has never contested a mile but is bred to be capable of getting the mile and should be classy enough to win a Group 1 as he by Dubawi x New Approach. He has won on good to firm twice suggesting he will get the firm turf at Del Mar
I’m taking the unusual step of recommending Charlie Appleby vs the field by suggesting equal bets on Modern Games and Albahr Which I prefer to selecting Albahr EW.
In an excellent Sporting Life article Charlie dodged the question of which he thinks will win this race as much as possible settling with “If anything you’d say Modern Games would be just in front (of Albahr)”.
For those of you who want me to stop sitting on the wall Albahr wins and would be a great each way bet. Don’t blame me if you are thwarted for the win by Modern Games though!
Charlie Appleby vs the field:
Modern Times Win 3/1 Unibet
Albahr Win 8/1 Ladbrokes
NAP: Juju’s Map
NB: Go Bears Go
Bonus>>>
Because I mentioned it I thought I would put this one up ante post:
Inspiral 1000 Guineas 2021 Win 3/1 Skybet