Breeders Cup Saturday Part 1

This the second part of my tips for the Breeders Cup.

 5:50

1m5f Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes (Grade 2) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)  

If Locally Owned can do it once he can do it again.  The gelding appeared to handle the bends better than Lone Rock at Belmont Park last time when they raced together over 1m5f.  

At the end of the run he was staying but was not completely all out with Lone Rock well held behind. I think Locally Owned could have found more if asked. Being stepped up in trip really was the secret sauce with this one after racing at much shorter distances for the rest of his career.  

Dylan Davis will ride him again after winning on him last time out. He will be familiar with the horse and will know what needs to be done.  

Locally Owned Win 10/1 Ladbrokes  

6:25

1m Goldikova Stakes Presented By PNC (Grade 2) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+)  

Princess Grace won a Group 2 at Del Mar two races ago winning easily.  She was able to overcome her draw even though she got fanned wide at the first turn. Travelling well along the straight she was stalking the leaders at the entrance to the final turn.  Gaining ground through the turn she accelerated so strongly coming out of the corner she almost looked like she got the horse equivalent of wheel spin as she slipped and took off like a scalded cat absolutely pouring it on. Nothing could keep with her.  

She can win this from a better draw over ½ a furlong less.  

Going Global may be good but can be caught out by a fast finisher and I think Princess Grace fits the bill.  

Princess Grace Win 2/1 Bet365  

7:05

7f Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)

I don’t think last year’s winner Gamine will be able to make all in this field and the filly to take advantage of that is Bella Sofia. Both horses laid down very similar times when winning Group 1 races over 7f at Saratoga within three weeks of each other in August.    

Both horses will be equally disadvantaged by the draw.  

I think Gamine will try to lead or run just off the pace and Bella Sofia will stalk her and pass her up the home straight.  

Gamine offers little value for a horse with such a strong rival.  

Bella Sofia is younger and open to more progression as she has raced far fewer times.  It will be a close finish but she can prevail.

Bella Sofia Win 3/1 Betregal

7:40

5f Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) 

My American friend @failedtomenace on Twitter makes a convincing argument as to why the favourite can be beat in this race so I am looking elsewhere.

In the summer at Del Mar when racing over 5f on turf stalls one to two were the stalls to be in.  Both of these have a staggering 23% win rate.

With the draw in mind I find it hard to look any further than Emaraaty Ana who is trained by Kevin Ryan. Looking at her Racing Post Ratings he looks like he is still progressing. He was gelded and had wind surgery last November and he has come on leaps and bounds since.

He has been performing at a very high level this year and is sure to get the ground.  He will be stalking the leaders and should come through like a train at the business end of the race.

He won a 6f Group 1 last time out in an awesome time. He only just lost out in a 5f group 1 by 1 ¼ lengths the race before.

Emaraaty Ana Win 7/1 Betregal

8:19

1m Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Main Track) (Dirt) (3yo+)

I would be daft to oppose the lightly raced Life is Good unless I had a seriously good angle.  This is a very good colt. It’s surprising that they found 7 other horses willing to line up next to him but then the prize money for being placed will be high at Del Mar on Saturday.

When he suffered his defeat this year it was by the smallest of margins over a slightly inadequate trip returning to the track after undergoing surgery and being off for 6 months. Last time out he put in a fantastic performance at Belmont Park winning a group 2 by 5 ½ lengths.

This one has a great chance

Life Is Good Win 4/5 Bet Regal

 8:59

1m3f Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) (3yo+)

As much as I adore the beautiful Love I can’t help but feel she has not progressed as a four year old in the manner that was expected of her. She is not in decline but appears to have plateaued.

Love will have major trouble handling the low mileage 4yo sensation Warlike Goddess.  She has won 4 of the 5 races that she has contested in her career and is likely to still be progressing. I like that both times she has raced over 1m3f she has performed very well easily winning her last race which was a group 1 over that distance.

She is proven on the ground and will be used to American starts and in her current mood will be hard to beat.

She has her regular rider Julien R Leparoux on board which is great as he will know which questions to ask the horse and when to ask them.

Warlike Goddess Win 4/1 William Hill

Nap: Warlike Goddess

NB: Emaraaty Ana