Saturday Part 1 of Wolverhampton 30/10/2021

Tips for the All Weather Saturday 30/10/21

This concerns the racing at the Wolverhampton meeting in the evening on Saturday 30/10/21.

There is unlikely to be a video for Sunday or Monday as I will be working on my website. If there are any tips for those days they will appear on the website, twitter or both. Twitter is the best way to keep up to date with it.  Twitter is an excellent way of finding out more about racing and getting up to date news.  It’s fun following the jockeys and stables and you don’t have to get involved in world politics or listen to brain farts if you are selective over who you follow. I only use Twitter for horse racing purposes. I am @equinetipster .

There is a Placepot/Quadpot list at the end of the article.  I’ve already won on both of these tote bets this week and it will be fun to see if we can do it again.

5:00

Watch Racing For Free Online At Coral Nursery Handicap Cl5 (2yo 0-70) 7f

I was having a serious look at Hilary’s Boy but then I noticed Cam Hardie was riding and put a line through the selection. It’s annoying as I thought the colt had a great chance. Hilary’s Boy will have to overcome his jockey to win as opposed to being aided by the jockey. Allegedly.

On that basis I am left with Jilmod and Intriguing Lady to decide between. I’m taking a chance on Jilmod winning on his handicap bow.

Jilmod has excellent breeding and was an expensive purchase to be running in a class 5 on the all-weather.  The breeding would suggest this one will be progressive and looks unexposed running from an opening rating of 68.  The Kodiac influence will help balance the dislike Galileo Gold progeny have for the all-weather surface.  Interestingly Jilmod’s trainer Hugo Palmer trained Galileo Gold.

 Hugo Palmer looks out of form but he has only had 6 runners over the last 14 days and holds a 20% strike rate on the all-weather with his two year olds.

Improvement is expected from a plum draw.

Jilmod Win 11/4 Bet365 BOG

6:30

Coral Proud To Support British Racing EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C & D) (GBB) Cl5 (2yo) 1m½f

In my opinion there is no real draw bias over 1m 1/2f at Wolverhampton there is a reasonable distance to the corner to sort themselves out with the minimum of fuss.

I liked the Sea The Moon colt Themoonsaballon until I realised his sire has only been responsible for 2 winners in 3 months on the flat and the all-weather in Great Britain.

The sire Lethal Force is banging in the winners currently and his progeny Lyrical Lady looks the one to be on here.

The penny seemed to have dropped for this filly last time out and she put in a great run to come second. She was short of room soon after the start and did not get a clear run from over 2f out.  She ran on well inside final furlong only losing out by 1 ½ lengths.

That race was the same class and pretty much the same type of race but for fillies and was contested over half a furlong less.

Hugie Morrison is in great form recently with 5 winners from 19 runs which works out as 26%

If she gets the rub of the green this time she will be hard to beat.

Lyrical Lady WIN 11/2 Ladbrokes BOG

7:00

MansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl6 (3yo+ 0-65) 1m½f

Not an easy one to decipher as there is some interesting form on display.

With a 4lb age related weight advantage over Busby Just Amber gets the nod in this race.  This is another one sired by Lethal Force.

Last time out Just Amber smashed the competition pulling clear with the second but at no point did she look under pressure as she eased down towards the finish to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

A six pound rise looks both fair and beatable for a filly that looks like she has been progressing ever since she returned from her break without catching the attention of the handicapper.

Just Amber WIN 10/3 Ladbrokes BOG

7:30

Betway Handicap Cl6 (3yo+ 0-65) 1m1½f

Looking at the draw they hit that first corner soon after leaving the stalls and anything drawn 6 or below seems to have an easier job getting a desirable track position.

Trusty Scout has a better draw than the current favourite Invincible Soldier and should be able to make the most of it as he likes to race prominently ideally making all. He enjoys soft ground so he will get on well with the standard to slow going available tomorrow.

Last time out he only lost out by a short head after a gritty display where he was just held. He only needs a repeat of that performance to figure strongly here.

This low mileage 3yo has changed trainer earlier this month from David O'Meara to David Pipe.  He has been fitted with cheek pieces on his debut for the stable. This catches my eye as his last trainer did not fit them and I wonder if David may be on to something here.

This horse has ridiculously good breeding with Galileo, Stormcat and Dutch Art in the mix.

Trusty Scout WIN 8/1 Ladbrokes BOG

8:00 Wolverhampton

Betway Novice Stakes Cl5 (3yo+) 5f

There is little draw bias over 5 f here.  Being drawn at absolute top or bottom in a race for inexperienced horses over 5f is not necessarily good as horses can sometimes jump in to clear space instead of heeding the wishes of the jockey.

I feel I would be slightly mad to look beyond the credentials of Seixas in this race.  She absolutely hacked up last time in a class 5 novice stakes over course and distance winning by 4 lengths.  It will take more than a 7lb penalty to stop this filly repeating the feat.

David Probert has rode her on both of her outings and knows how to win on her. 

I was working at a guide price supplied by the sporting life of 4/5.  I will not recommend any horse at 1/4 which is the frankly ridiculous price it opened up at. FFS. 4/11 bog will have to suffice.

Seixas Win 4/11 Ladbrokes bog

8:30 Wolverhampton

Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl6 (3yo+ 0-60) 1m4f

A quick note on the draw over 1m4f.  Looking back at some replays they hit that first corner quite fast and anything drawn 6 or below seems to get good track position without too much fuss.

True Romance breaks well and should be able to get where he needs to be.  This multi-talented grey goes hurdling as well as running on the flat.  His last run on the flat was painful to watch.  I have rarely seen any horse get hampered so badly on multiple occasions in a race. It was like the other jockeys couldn’t see him.

The long and short of it is that last time out on the flat he raced at the same distance in the same class off the same mark and came 5th by 1 ½ lengths whilst looking like the jockey had the metaphorical handbrake on.

This looks like a great bet at 4/1

True Romance 4/1 Ladbrokes BOG

Current Placepot/Quadpot list

5.00 Jilmod (Placepot leg 1)

5.30 To be selected

6.00 To be selected (Quadpot Leg 1)

6.30 Lyrical Lady

7.00 Just Amber

7.30 Trusty Scout