Kempton On 29/10/2021

Kempton 29/10/2021

Wednesday was frustrating at Kempton as I picked so many placed horses and only got one winner.  There was light at the end of the tunnel though as I picked both the Placepot and the Quadpot correctly meaning the selections finished ahead on the day.  The pay-outs were not very big but they were enough to make me smile. Great Hunter is certainly one for the notebook.  The commentator said “This is impressive! This is Great Hunter!” as the big grey romped home.  There is a Placepot/Quadpot list at the end of the article.

5:00 Kempton

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New Shepard is the pick here.  It would be rude to ignore a colt who has dropped from 28/1 to 8/1 with William Hill. 

It can really pay to follow market movers like this and David Probert seems to be a confident jockey booking.

Raced exclusively over 6f so far the rise to a mile could be just the ticket as I feel has been caught out by the sprint like nature of 6f and should appreciate the minimum middle distance trip.

It’s possible the investors were looking for the each way money so an each way bet is in order here.

I will lament again about William Hill’s inability to give BOG on their early bird prices.  BOG would have been useful here in case the plunge on price was an overreaction that might be corrected later.

Luckily Bet365 just opened up at 14/1 BOG smashing Mr William Hills 8/1 to bits.

New Shepard EW 14/1 Bet365 1/4 1-3

5:30 Kempton

7f Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Horses In Bands C/D) (GBB Race) (Div I) Cl5 (2yo)

Last Hoorah is the best form pick by miles.  Hollie Doyle would have to have a nightmare of a ride not to get this one home in first. 

He is a proven winner and should have the benefit of experience which will give him an edge on the unraced members of the opposition. Last Hoorah went to Bro Park in Sweden for his last run and just lost out in the last 50 yards.

The progeny of Bated Breath have no problems racing on an all-weather surface.

The colt runs consistently well and Hollie Doyle has rode him on all 5 runs including the one in Sweden.

Last Hoorah WIN 7/4 Bet365 BOG

6:00 Kempton

7f Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Horses In Bands C/D) (GBB Race) (Div II) Cl5 (2yo)

Taking the penalty into account Racing Royalty should have the beating of Chola Empire. He seemed to be learning on the job on his debut rallying and keeping on in the final furlong.

The Gelding operation is likely to have brought about improvement.

His sire Fast Company produces horses that run very well over 7f.

Saeed Bin Suroor is in excellent form at Kempton this year having won 7 times from 22 runners which is a 31.8% win rate.

Racing Royalty WIN 3/1 Bet365 BOG

6:30 Kempton

7f Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Nursery Handicap Cl4 (2yo 0-85)

The trainers Gosden are running a colt that looks possibly underrated here. 

Altraif will be fitted out with first time blinkers.  It always makes me laugh when people try to outguess the trainer as to if they will be effective.  It’s not like the first time the head gear is fitted is at the race track and everyone’s surprised Pikachu at the improvement or lack of. These things are carefully considered.

J & T Gosden have won 18 from 58 runs at Kempton this year which gives them a 31% strike rate.

David Egan rides for the sixth time having rode him every time apart from his debut. He won on the colt over course and distance in the same class over the same going 3 races ago. Altraif will be carrying just 1lb more this time. He raced in class 3 and 2 races on the last 2 occasions and will welcome the drop back in class.

Altraif WIN 7/2 Bet365 BOG

 7:00 Kempton

6f Unibet Casino/British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Horses In Bands C/D) (GBB Race) Cl5 (2yo)

It is hard to ignore the credentials of Stubble Field.  I feel a bit like she’s been put on the naughty step by his trainer as she has been dropped from class 2 to class 5.

Progeny of Adaay are not noted for their love of the all-weather surface but in this company Stubble Field should be able to get over herself as the going is standard/slow and progeny of Adaay enjoy soft ground.

Her draw is ok and she will get the trip.

Last time out she came a good fifth in a 28 runner field in a class 2 auction stakes. The race before was her debut and she raced well finishing second in a class 4 Novice stakes and attracting the racing post-race form comment: promising. Both the races were on good going over 6f.

I feel she will be too good for these and can put her experience to good use.

Stubble Field WIN 6/4 Bet365 BOG

7:30 Kempton

6f Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105)

Run To Freedom had a great run last time out when he was dropped in trip to 6f from 7f.  It seemed to bring about improvement and he can defy the rise of 6lb.

His last run was over course, distance and going.  He won by 1 ½ lengths in a good time seemingly with loads in hand.  He should be fine with the rise in class as he is progressive and looked so much better than the class 3 opposition he faced last time.

David Probert is in the saddle for the sixth time and has won on Run To Freedom before.  He will be well acquainted with the colt and will know what needs to be done.

Run To Freedom WIN 9/4 Bet365 BOG

8:00 Kempton

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Call me boring snoring if you will for choosing three favourites in a row but it is hard to go against the Redzone here and I call things as I see them.

Gianluca Sanna is an exciting prospect and should turn out to be an awesome jockey over the next few years. His 7lb claim is hilarious considering the man used to perform acrobatics on the back of thorough breeds during the medieval festival that is held in a town local to where he grew up in Italy there each year.  He broke his leg once so it was a long way from safe.

The horse is good too….

So that’s Redzone WIN Bet3…..

Just joking by cutting it short there!

Coming out quickly after his last run Redzone is 3lb well in on the handicap. He was only beaten by a neck last time and put in a great run.  He won the race before readily by 2 ½ lengths. Both races were class 6 handicaps over 6f on the all-weather.

Sanna has rode Redzone on the last three outings coming 5,1,2 and appears to be able to get the most out of him.

Redzone Win 9/4 Bet365 BOG

8:30 Kempton

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The hurdler Declaration Of War gets the nod here.  He has already attracted early support in the market going from 17/2 to 5/1. He has been away from the flat for some time but his most recent run was about a month and a half ago over the jumps.

Stamina will not be an issue as he runs consistently well over distances ranging from 2 miles to 3 miles and at his best is still able to produce a turn of foot at the end.  He is a hurdler not a chaser so that means there is more emphasis on speed in his day job.

It will be fascinating to see what can be achieved for the Max Young stable with David Probert on-board.

Declaration Of War Win 5/1 William Hill

Placepot/Quadpot List

5.00 New Shepard

5.30 Last Hoorah

6.00 Racing Royalty (Quadpot race 1)

6.30 Altraif

7.00 Stubble Field

7.30 Run to Freedom