Lingfield Thursday 28/10/2021

Lingfield Park 28/10/2021

At Lingfield the going should be standard. There is a Placepot and Quadpot list at the end of the article. There will be a qualifying race for the All-weather cup and it is good to see a couple of listed races on the same card.

I chose this meeting by adding all of the class numbers together for both the all-weather meetings on Thursday dividing by the amount of races and going with the one with the lowest figure as theoretically it should be the classier meeting.

1.03 Lingfield

1m2f Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-70)

Personally I believe the handicapper was heavy handed rising Rogue Power 5lb for coming second by ½ length in a 1m2f Class 5 handicap.  The gelding will be able to carry the weight as it is his first rise.  The reason the handicapper was trigger happy was because although Rogue Power finished second the first two were clear of the rest by 6 ½ lengths.

His gelding operation was clearly a success and progression is expected.

Jack Mitchell is back in the saddle which is a bonus as he rode so well last time. The jockey has won about one in six of his races on the all-weather with 3yo this season which is a decent strike rate.

I have a small concern his trainer is out of form but this year Tom Clover has had better success with his 3yo on the all-weather than any other category. He can add another win to his tally with this Pivotal X Street Cry gelding.

Rogue Power WIN 2/1 William Hill

1.38 Lingfield

7f (7f1y) Play Coral Racing-Super-Series For Free EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C & D) (GBB) (Class 5) (2yo)

This one looks between Silver Kitten, Doolily and Suwad. Silver Kitten carried top weight and won last time out but was disqualified after drifting left on her main opponent. Doolily may well need the run and will be stepping up in trip and down in class. Suwad looks interesting as a new comer especially with Buick riding but I never seem to pick the right debutants with him.

For me it seems disingenuous to ignore the credentials of Silver Kitten.  The reality of the situation is that even though she was disqualified about a week ago she won a hard race over 7f in a class 4 against decent competition with a mixture of finishing speed, experience and a good measure of grit whilst carrying top weight.

She goes well on an all-weather surface and has finished second on two of her three runs.

To bring her out again so soon after the race in which she was disqualified means Johnston must feel she is in fine form.

Richard Kingscote has won about one in six of his races riding two year olds on the all-weather this season. He is reunited with Silver Kitten having rode her on her debut.

Silver Kitten Win 3/1 Bet365 Bog

2.13 Lingfield

1m5f Coral EBF River Eden Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

The problem I have with the daughter of Dubawi Sayyida is that I don’t think she will stay the 1m5f trip. Beholding didn’t appear to be able to deal with the step up to a slow run class 2 last time. We could say that she is back to her favourite surface but it is worth noting that the stats say that progeny of Le Havre prefer the turf…!  I may have that all wrong but this is all about opinions and that is what forms markets.  A betting market is basically a numerical representation of a large argument!

Looking outside the top two means a decent price will be available. This race has taken me a long time to solve.  It is difficult but at a pinch I have settled on At A Pinch.

Like the trainers Gosden I am looking at the potential of the filly as well as her previous form.  She made a mockery of her class 5 opposition when destroying them by 8 ½ lengths last time out.  She was eased down at the finish suggesting she could have pulled out a lot more if asked.  I cannot see the step up in trip or class being a problem for this one.

Kieran O'Neill rides and he in great form with a 25% strike rate over the last 14 days scoring 6 wins from 24 runs

The Gosdens are in awesome form at Lingfield on the all-weather this season with 11 wins from 39 runs which is a 28.2% win rate.

At A Pinch WIN 8/1 Ladbrokes

2.48 Lingfield

7f (7f1y) MansionBet Beaten By A Head Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

It’s a shame we have such a small field for a class 2 race but after solving the last race it feels like a bit of a rest!

Unless something improbable occurs William Buick will win on Modern News. Charlie Appleby trains him for Godolphin and Modern News can get his hat trick here. Charlie has an incredible 33.33% win rate at Lingfield this year which is only slightly above his 14 day hit rate.

The price was lower than I was expecting.

Modern News Win 1/2 Bet365 BOG

3.23 Lingfield

1m (1m1y) Coral EBF Fleur De Lys Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (AWC Fast-Track Qualifier) (Class 1) (3yo+)

As far as I understand it this is a win and you’re in race for the prestigious all weather cup meeting in April. 

Mrs Fitzherbert is a course and distance winner having won here two starts ago in August.  That was a class 3 filly’s handicap race. The manner of victory in her last two races suggests she will race well at listed level. She won a class four race over 1m ½ furlong for fun last time out.

Her trainer Hughie Morrison has been in great form over the last 14 days with a 24% win rate having scored 4 wins from 17 runs.

Mrs Fitzherbert WIN 7/1 Bet365 BOG

 3.58 Lingfield

7f (7f1y) Watch Racing Free Online At Coral EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

After performing to a promising level over the last two runs the newly gelded Alvediston looks the one to be on here.  Gelding often brings about improvement and if this one progresses he will be very hard to beat.

His Sire New Bay has been really racking up the wins in the last three months and is worth noting as a sire to take notice of if you have not already.

William Haggas is in good form currently and so is Thursdays jockey Tom Marquand. Tom will be familiar with the horse having rode him on both of his previous starts.

He was a very expensive purchase at 150,000 Guineas so you would expect him to come good sooner rather than later at this level.

Alvediston WIN 3/1 Bet365 BOG

4.33 Lingfield

7f (7f1y) MansionBet Proud Partners Of The AWC Apprentice Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)

Racing over 7f last time out Queen Of Burgundy had a bad draw and broke well.  She had to work hard at the start to get across onto the rail to gain a prominent position. She travelled strongly and had a good turn of foot at the end of the race staying on over the line defeating her nearest challenger soundly. 

I am not convinced a 4lb rise will slow down this mare who looks destined for a higher class in the near future.  I like it when a horse looks a different class to the opposition and this one fits the description nicely.

Her trainer Joseph Parr has been in excellent form the last 14 days with 3 wins from 13 runners which is a 23% win rate.

I think she will get her hat trick here.

Queen Of Burgundy WIN 11/2 Paddy Power

Placepot/Quadpot List

1.03 Rogue Power (PP1)

1.38 Silver Kitten (PP2)

2.13 At A Pinch (PP3, QP1)

2.48 Modern News (PP4, QP2)

3.23 Mrs Fitzherbert (PP5, QP3)

3.58 Alvediston (PP6, QP4)