Kempton Wednesday Evening 27/10/2021

Wednesday night at Kempton 27/10/2021

I have spent a very long time looking at the All-weather meeting at Kempton on Wednesday.  There is a tip for every race on the card so I have included a Placepot/Quadpot recommendation at the end of this article.

4.40 Kempton

6f Try Our New Super Boosts At Unibet Classified Claiming Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-75)

Nicola Currie will be riding Good Earth in the first race. She has rode him on the last three occasions.

The 4yo gelding burst a blood vessel last time out so can be excused the poor performance.  He probably would have won the race before that if he had not had an awkward start as he only lost by half a length when carrying 1lb less than Wednesday’s weight. It may have been a class 6 but they ran a decent time that day. He won the race before that so you can see the last run can be discounted as unfortunate.

Good Earth WIN 7/2 Bet365 Bog

5.15 Kempton

6f Unibet Extra Place Offers Every Day Nursery Handicap (Class 5) (2yo 0-75)

The impeccably bred Olympic Eagle is by Gleneagles whose progeny win 17% of the races they compete in.  He is by Galileo and Stormcat.  Galileo and Stormcat were two of my favourite horses ever.  Stormcat gives frightening acceleration and Galileo gives stamina and speed. The dams sire Exceed and Excel was an excellent sprinter.  The reason I am talking about all this is it shows that really Olympic Eagle will need somewhere between 6f and a mile as his career progresses.  He has raced purely over 6f so far and was just beaten last time out into fourth. He only lost by ¾ length and the race was in a good time for soft going. I think he can go one better on Wednesday.

Adam Kirkby gave him a great ride last time out and is in the saddle again this time.  He is in good form with a 19% win rate over the last 14 days

Olympic Eagle WIN 5/1 William Hill

5.45 Kempton

7f Unibet New Instant Roulette Novice Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (3yo+)

Great Hunter ran green in his first race and came third.  The penny had dropped by the time he hit the racetrack for the second time as he won a class 5 6f novice race.  He set a good time and won by 3 ¾ lengths. Both of his runs were on the all-weather. The Dark Angel influence makes me think he should get standard to slow and I wish the progeny statistics showed the results for the different types of all-weather surface.

Oisin Murphy is in the saddle and having the champion jockey on board is a definite plus in the horses favour.

Saeed Bin Suroor is the trainer and has a 25% strike rate at Kempton this season with 5 wins from 20.

Great Hunter WIN 4/5 Bet365 Bog

6.15 Kempton

7f Unibet New Instant Roulette Novice Stakes (Div II) (Class 5) (3yo+)

Under the Twilight will be getting a 5lb filly’s allowance so having a 7lb penalty is not as harsh as it could be. This low mileage 3 year old has only raced twice so far and both runs have been on an all-weather surface. The progeny of Twilight Son race nearly as well on the all-weather as they do the turf. She smashed Lord Lovelace by 2 ¼ lengths last time who was a heavy odds on favourite trading at 2/9.  That was the same class and trip as Wednesday.  I think she can defy the penalty and I feel she does not have to beat one as good as Lord Lovelace this time.

Under the Twilight WIN 15/8 Bet365 BOG

6.45 Kempton

1m Unibet Casino Deposit £10 Get £40 Bonus Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-70)

This progeny of Iffraaj Florence Street should be fine on standard to slow as she had a good run on the surface earlier in her career.

There is a good chance she would have won her last race if she hadn’t bumped a rival 1f out.  Even with the bump she was only ½ length behind as she recovered from it well.  That was a one mile class 5 filly’s handicap. She races off the same mark on Wednesday as the handicapper has been lenient with her.

Oisin Murphy rides her for the fifth time so should be familiar with the horse.  The best result he had on her so far was a second place in a 14 runner class 5 handicap at Newbury in July.

Andrew Balding has a 21.3% strike rate at Kempton and hopefully can add to his tally here.

Florence Street WIN 13/2 William Hill

7.15 Kempton

1m4f (1m3f219y) Unibet Extra Place Offers Every Day Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-95)

To start with I liked Nadein so the horse should be considered a danger to the selection.

Bandinelli won his last race for fun and seemed to really enjoy himself and the handicapper has lost the plot if he thinks a 3lb rise will stop him here. He won a class 3 1m6f race with a gritty display proving he has stamina on tap. 

He is having a great season having won 3 from 5 runs.  He drops back down in trip to 1m4f for this which is no concern as he appears to be the full package and has speed as well as stamina.

He can turn the tables on Marshall Plan who beat him earlier in the year by 1 ¾ lengths as he is carrying 9lbs less this time vs Marshall Plan compared to that occasion.

Charlie Appleby has a 33.3% strike rate in the last month at the time of writing and Adam Kirby is in the saddle who has a 19% strike rate in the last 14 days.

Bandinelli WIN 7/2 Bet365 BOG

7.45 Kempton

1m4f (1m3f219y) Try Our New Price Boosts At Unibet Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-70)

Sunnydayinmay gets the nod here. She is suited by the going and distance and should handle the step up in class.

Holly Doyle rides and has been in good form over the last 14 days with a 20% win rate at the time of writing. This season she is the top jockey at Kempton having won 27 from 148 which is a 18.2% strike rate.

Sunnydayinmay was unsuited to making the running last time according to the trainers rep. The run before she was hampered but still won comfortably which suggest the 7lb rise she received was fair bearing in mind she finished in front by 4 ¼ lengths.

I am looking forward to a better run on Wednesday and with Holly in the saddle who has won her previously I think she has a great chance.

The William Knight yard seems to be coming back in to form with 2 winners in the last 6 runs.

Sunnydayinmay Win 8/1 Bet365 BOG

8.15 Kempton

2m (1m7f218y) Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-80)

Normally I would be put off a horse by seeing a jockey with the kind of statistics Luke Morris is currently sporting with a terrible strike rate of 1 win from 52 rides in the last 14 days.  It gives me hope however that he has rode Blazon to victory on the geldings last 2 runs. He has actually won on him 4 out of 8 times which suggests an affinity with the horse. The two recent victories were over 2m ½ furlong and were class’s 5 and 6. Both the runs were on the all-weather and he was fine on both standard and standard to slow. He was staying on nicely at the end of his last run and I don’t see an extra 3 lb spoiling his fun.

Blazon WIN 9/2 Bet365 BOG

Placepot/Quadpot

4.40 Good Earth (PP1)

5.15 Olympic Eagle (PP2)

5.45 Great Hunter (PP3) (QP1)

6.15 Under The Twilight (PP4) (QP2)

6.45 Florence Street (PP5) (QP3)

7.15 Bandinelli (PP6) QP4)