Racing on 7/5/2022
3:50 Lingfield
7f SBK Chartwell Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
SHE DO has got an excellent chance in the 3.50 at Lingfield today. This will be the first time Jack Mitchell has ridden her in a race. He is a good rider with an excellent win rate of 26% in the last 14 days riding 9 winners from 34 attempts. His skill riding older horses on turf is evident as he has ridden approximately one in six to victory during his career and has a 50%-win rate with this type of horse this season with 6 winners from 12.
Roger Varian is in decent form at the moment with an 18% strike rate but it looks like he’s taking a while to get going with his older horses on the turf. This is nothing to be concerned about even though it appears to be the weakest aspect of his training. He has still managed to win with approximately 1 in 6 of them in the last 5 years!
SHE DO is a 4yo filly. She was sired by the magnificent Siyouni so carries a lot of natural speed. She won her last race in a good time even though she ducked left at the start. I would like to think her starts have improved since we last saw her run 210 days ago so it is reasonable to assume she will run a good time today. I feel her time off is not a concern as Roger Varian is great at getting horses sharp enough to race first time out. She has had many occasions in the past when she has done well after returning from a break. Today’s going will be fine as she is a top of the ground horse and has previously won on good to firm. The last race she won was a listed race and she looks like she will be good enough to win at group level. At this stage of the season the 4yo horses do have an advantage over the 3yo horses as they are more physically developed. Giving away 12lb may look worrying but it really should be fine. Remember horses are not given less weight to give them an advantage. They have it because they need it. You do get exceptions where this is not the case but it usually takes a special one. I see no problem with the trip as she put in her second-best performance on RPR rating at 7f. She will be helped by her excellent draw..
I have already mentioned SHE DO should have the 3yo covered. In terms of the older horses Chocoya is fast and finished ¾ length behind SHE DO over 6f. I can’t see her reversing that form over 7f. The lightly raced Wrens breath could well be the main danger and is a fast finisher who can also be in the mix.
3.50 Lingfield She do WIN 11/4 Bet365 bog (11/4 last night)
My other selections are:
1.35 Nottingham Win Greenbarn WIN 1/1 Bet365 bog (5/4 last night)
2.20 Ascot Mandoob EW 25/4 Bet365 Each way extra 1/5 1st 3 places (11/1 normal EW before NR)
4.40 Ascot After The Rain WIN 6/5 (11/8 Last night)