Chester 6th May
4:55 Chester
2m2½f tote+ Chester Plate Handicap (For The Bobby Mcalpine Memorial Cup) (Class 2) (4yo+)
I have a chosen a horse for this race whose price is simply too big. Currently on the drift CHASE THE DOLLAR has to be a good EW bet with the first 4 places available to the EW punter.
He will be ridden by a decent apprentice called Laura Pearson who is having a good season so far. In my opinion she may be riding at a level above her claim as she is displaying good skills. This would suggest at least part of the 3lb claim will be to CHASE THE DOLLAR’s advantage. She was the last rider to win for the trainer.
David Loughnane is a quality trainer and his current strike rate is 19% in the last 14 days. He has already had two winners at this meeting with the excellent Absolutely Flawless and Ffion. The manner of Ffion’s victory was impressive as the horse had to overcome a Frankenstein post position of 11. This would suggest he knows how to get his charges spot on for the course and is tactically aware.
CHASE THE DOLLAR is a progressive 4yo Frankel colt. He should get the going as he has previously won on standard/slow on the all-weather twice and certainly did not disgrace himself coming second over an inadequate 7f trip last time he encountered good to soft. He has won at Wolverhampton which suggests he should get the turns at Chester. The increase of trip has been the making of him and he is steadily improving with each run. On his current trajectory you would have to presume that as long as he gets the conditions, he will run a lifetime best RPR (Racing Post Rating). As his OR rating is likely to go up approximately 2.5 pounds judging by his previous four runs on the back of this run, he may be a little bit well in especially once the jockey claim is considered. He is likely to race up at the front of the field either trying to make all or hanging just off the pace stalking the leaders. He should stay the distance and should have a good run in him this afternoon.
I have no idea why he is drifting in price from the 9/1 I took last night. There is good support for Hydroplane but I see no reason why he will improve on his third from last year at the age of 6. Balding runs Auriferous but has not had a winner at this meeting so far and is in generally poor form with only an 11% hit rate in the last 14 days. Venetia Williams trained the winner of this race last year but I fundamentally don’t trust multi code runners to do the job. I’ve seen too many wander out of the stalls and stare in wonder at the lack of obstacles before trying to obtain and maintain an inappropriately fast lead. Both of the well backed Bellatrixsa’s win this year were really slow and if she has not been fast over hurdles, I see no reason why she will be fast today as she failed to win a slow class 2 race last time on the flat.
CHASE THE DOLLAR 14/1 EW Bet365 Bog 1/5 1st 4 places
The other selections from Chester:
1.30 Fools Rush In EW 17/2 (6/1 last night) Bet365 bog 1/5 1st 3
2.05 Baryshnikov 11/4 WIN (4/1 last night) Bet365 bog
3.45 Flaming rib WIN 6/5 (9/4 last night) Bet365 bog
4.20 Heart of Soul EW 5/1 (6/1 last night) Bet365 bog 1/5 1st 5