Newton Abbot 21/10/2021

Jumps Racing At Newton Abbot 21/10/2021

I have been looking at the racing at Newton Abbot for tomorrow.  I think the ground will stay soft.  I have included a Placepot/Quadpot list as was waiting on a price.

2.13 Newton Abbot

2m5½f (2m5f122y) newtonabbotracing.com Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-120)

Although my interest was first of all captured by the favourite in this race I think I may have found one to beat the Paul Nicholls trained Oscars Moonshine.

David Pipe has not been in the best of form recently but he can take heart in the knowledge that his last win was on this course. Over the last 5 years he was also the 5th most successful trainer here. I’m taking on the favourite with his runner Paricolor who looks overpriced.

This 5 year old gelding has won on both good and soft ground so the going will be of no real concern. The class of the race will put him in a good position to win as he has already won 7 class 4 races in his career so far. He has won 8 of the 18 hurdle races he has been involved in.

Before his break he was running rampant in selling races winning 6 between November and May between approximately 2 miles and 2 ½ miles.

He is certainly one to go in the notebook regardless of his performance in this race. It won’t take him long to win again and it could be here.  David Pipe will have him as fit as a fiddle.

I’m not going to suggest EW as there are 8 runners in this and if there is a non-runner there will only be 2 places available.

Paricolor WIN 7/1 Bet365 BOG

2.48 Newton Abbot

2m2½f (2m2f110y) St Austell Brewery Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 4) (4yo+)

I’m siding with Paul Nicholls in this one.  At the time of writing there is no price so please don’t shout at me in the comments if it’s really short.

Paul has an awesome 33% strike rate at Newton Abbot this season winning  17 from 52 runs and the yard is bang in form with a 24% win rate in the last 14 days.

Halo Des Obeaux ran well on his debut for his new yard finishing 3rd at Worcester over 2 miles. Looking back over the form I can see that he definitely has a liking for some cut in the ground and will appreciate the current going at the racecourse. In March the grey won a decent hurdle race in France over a furlong less than Thursday’s race.  He won well and it would be a surprise if he did not get the trip.

Harry Cobden rode him last time and will be familiar with the horse. Harry has a crazy 30% win rate over the last fortnight.

Halo Des Obeaux Win 2/1 Bet365 BOG (which was quite acceptable as it turned out!)

4.30 Newton Abbot

3m2f (3m1f170y) NewtonAbbotRace On Twitter Handicap Chase (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-100)

The Richenda Ford trained Leave My Alone looks to be too good for these if she comes back from her break in fine fettle. She looks even more interesting now one of her main market rivals has become a non-runner.

She looks like a proper mud lark with all her best work coming on going with some cut in it. Considering she won a class 5 3 mile race on heavy ground by 58 lengths in January it does not take much imagination to think she will get 3m2f.

In her last race she came second by 2 ¾ lengths after making a mistake 4 out which she never really recovered from. She kept on at the finish well to get second.

I expect a good run from this mare even though the handicapper was heavy handed rising her 3lb for her last performance.

Leave My Alone 9/4 William Hill

Placepot/Quadpot

These recommendations are purely for the Tote bets mentioned:

13:38 Shantou Sunset (pp)

14:13 Paricolor (pp)

14:48 Halo Des Obeaux (pp & qp)

15:23 Arian (pp & qp)

15:58 Folly Gate (pp & qp)

16:30 Leave My Alone (pp & qp)