Cheltenham Part 1 22/10/2021

Cheltenham Jumps Friday 22nd October

I’ll be happy to see the horses run at my local track.  We have decided not to attend this time but we may go in November. The ground should remain good as there is no rain forecast and the team at Cheltenham will water the ground if they think there is any chance of good to firm.

2.30 Cheltenham

2m (1m7f199y) (Old) squareintheair.com Novices' Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

This looks like an interesting competition. Third time lucky looks like a good one especially if the wind surgery and a break helps the gelding return to form.  It’s his first time chasing so I’d rather watch the run.

Sir Tivo looks to be out of is depth and although he is a proven winner will have to seriously raise his game to triumph here.

Buddy Rich came second 3 times in a row in beginner’s chases in Ireland which shows good consistency but he is another that will have to raise his game to win.

Any news is an interesting contender being a good hurdler.  His chasing debut went well but the rpr rating for his second is lower than the rpr rating for the second placed run of Fidelio Vallis.  He will need to brush up his jumping to beat the Nicholls runner.

Nicholls is running Fidelio Vallis. He was headed in the run in during the finish of the listed race he last contested. He will enjoy the drop back to 2 miles which he won over the race before last.  That was a class 2 which he won by 4 lengths whilst giving lots of weight to the second placed horse.  Both trainer and jockey are in tremendous form. Fidelio Vallis will be hard to beat as he has won four of the six chases he has contested and came second in the other two.

Fidelio Vallis WIN 9/4 Bet365 BOG

3.05 Cheltenham

3m (2m7f208y) (Old) 888Sport What's Your Thinking Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Dragon Bones is a superb mare. She has won 4 from 5 in novice hurdles from class four to listed level. She has also won 1 from 2 in National Hunt Flat races.

At the weights she has a brilliant chance with a 7lb filly’s allowance. She is proven at both the trip and over the ground.

It will be interesting to see how Calagogo runs on his return to the Elliot yard but I think Dragon bones will have the measure of him.

Ian Williams has a 20% strike rate in the last week.  He has won 2 races from 10. This is above his fortnight win rate of 11% which shows his stable is coming into form.

Dragon Bones Win 9/2 Bet365 BOG