Fergal Fest Worcester 20/10/2021

Fergal Fest

Fergal O’Brien is another of my local trainers as I live in Gloucestershire and I love to keep an eye on his runners. He is the top trainer at Worcester so far this year.  He has achieved 15 wins from 52 runs which is a superb 29% hit rate returning £43.91 to £1 level stakes. This means we should be paying serious attention to any horse he runs here.

I will not be paying attention to the National Hunt Flat races though as I never enjoy watching them or tipping them. They have their purpose I understand that but I just don’t enjoy them!  Fergal is showing - £9.88 to a £1 level stake in this type of race so I don’t mind ignoring them even if his strike rate this season is 18%.

1.08 Worcester

2m7f Duralock Group Conditional Jockeys' Mares' Handicap Chase (Hereford Mares' Handicap Series Qual') (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-110)

The Toojumpa changed stables from John Groucott to Fergal O'Brien on the 11th October having been rested since April. He should improve for the change of scenery as without being rude to John it is an upgrade of trainer and facilities.

The handicapper has given him a chance reducing his rating by 5lbs to 93 after his last run. He has done well off much higher chase ratings coming 3rd in a small 5 runner class 4 by 2 lengths in February at Huntingdon when he was rated 7lb higher at 100.

With overnight rain expected which should start to stop about lunchtime the ground could well turn good to soft or soft.  This will play into his hands (hooves?) as he enjoys some cut in the ground with all of his best performances coming on good to soft or slower.

Liam Harrison is a great claimer and claims 3lb this time. He has a 20% win rate this season when chasing. He seems to be very good at riding Worcester and is the third most successful jockey to ride the course this season with 7 wins from 19 runs which is a whopping 37% hit rate.

The Toojumpa should be able to win on his debut for the stable and should show some improvement.

This was sp when I started writing.  It changed to 11/4 when Bet365 opened up and now it is as low as 13/8 with the same company in a very short time which is very frustrating.

The Toojumpa 9/4 Paddy Power

2.13 Worcester

2m7f Richard Davis Memorial Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)

Fergal has another good one in the 2.13. 

Coral’s main market rival has been on a break for 202 days so Coral will have the advantage of being fresh. He will have no trouble with the ground if it softens as he has a high knee action and has won on good and soft going.

The grey won over course and distance last time out. He looked in great physical shape in that race with good muscle definition and seemed to be very fit. He raced prominently and went ahead with three fences to go and from that point he never looked like he would be beat.  As the commentator said at the time “He found plenty”

I seriously doubt the real terms 6lb rise will stop him winning this one. That’s 4lb for the win added to Liam claiming 2 lb less this time.

Liam rode him for his last win so will know how to get the best from him.

Coral Win 7/2 Paddy Power

3.58 Worcester

2m4f Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (3yo+)

Brief Ambition was fitted with first time cheek pieces last time out and I think they really helped.  He has won over hurdles twice now.  Although the form will say he is a course winner it is worth noting this was in a bumper.

The gelding won his last race well by ½ length beating third place by 9 ½ lengths. He has not been penalised for the win and can step up in class to win this class 2.

The second most successful jockey to race at Worcester this year is Paddy Brennan who is a seriously good jockey. He has an awesome 30% win rate over hurdles this season winning an easy to calculate 30 from 100.  I always see it as a massive plus to see him riding. He has won on Brief Ambition for both his wins over hurdles.

Brief Ambition 7/2 Win Paddy Power

4.33 Worcester

2m Richard Wright Memorial Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Herring Queen Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Class 4) (4yo+)

Rebel Roxy is a decent EW price at 8/1 but with only 8 runners it’s going to take only one to be pulled out to reduce the place terms to 2 instead of 3. With Fergal’s record here it’s definitely worth chancing the win. On the plus side I see it has gone to 6/1 as I have been typing and as low as 4/1 with some firms.

This will be the mare’s first run over hurdles and Fergal will have her locked and loaded. Rebel Roxy has had some encouraging runs in bumpers finishing second and third in small fields. Her pedigree suggests she will take to hurdles like a duck to water and should improve significantly when she eventually goes chasing.

The claimer Nick Slatter claims 5lb which is very useful.  He has had 10 rides in his National Hunt career so far and is looking for his first win.  It should not be long coming as he has finished in the places for a decent percentage of his rides.  He looks like he has good potential and we should be able to watch him develop into a quality claimer this year. I wonder if the owner of Rebel Roxy is his father as he is called Ian Slatter.

Rebel Roxy Win 6/1 Bet365 Bog