Jumps For Thursday 2/12/2021
1:37 Leicester
1m7½f (1m7f113y) Watch On Racing TV Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Class 3 4yo+
Revasser put in a good performance whilst running a bit green to win on his debut National Hunt Flat race. He did not enjoy himself so much the next time carrying a penalty and did not run as well. Bryony probably let him off the hook a bit at the finish as he started dropping back when the win looked out of reach.
I think good to soft will suit and the distance should be just right for this first outing over hurdles. His trainer and connections must think a lot of him as this will be his second rise in class in two races. The sire of Revasser is called Ask and he is good at producing hurdlers. Three of his brothers from the same Dam have won over hurdles. Le Reve and Join Together are quite talented. His dam won a National Hunt Flat race on good to firm at Dundalk.
Bryony Frost has a great record over the last 14 days with a 31% win rate. Her win rate for Lucy Wadham is also good as she has a 23% strike rate when riding for that trainer over the last 12 months returning +£29.71 to a £1 level stake. She rode Revasser on the last two occasisions and should know him well.
Lucy Wadham is good at training hurdlers and Bryony is really good in these novice events as she is such a good judge of pace and ability. Together it is a potent combination. If the horse is capable you can rest assured Bryony will extract every bit of talent from him.
Revasser win 14/1 Bet365 bog
1:52 Market Rasen
2m3f (2m3f34y) Follow @mansionbetrace On Twitter Handicap Chase (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-100)
Avoir Soins should put in a good run on his debut for the powerful Jonjo O’Neil stable. He changed stables from Anthony Honeyball on the 23rd October and should appreciate the change of trainer.
He won a 2m4f chase at Lingfield in November last year from a 2lb lower mark. Thursday’s jockey will be claiming the same as the rider was on that occasion. His win was on soft ground and he prefers a bit of cut in the ground so good to soft will be right up his street. Any rain will help his cause.
Kevin Brogan is an excellent claimer and has produced some good stats so far this year. He has a 33% win rate from the last 14 days with 3 wins from 9 rides. He has a 19% win rate this season. He claims a useful 3lb.
Avoir Sans Ew 6/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 1-4 bog
2:15 Wincanton
3m1f (3m1f30y) All Sport Insurance For Sports Professionals Silver Buck Handicap Chase Class 3 4yo+ 0-125
Venetia Williams has a 45% win rate with her chasers over the last 14 days returning £44.25 to a £1 level stake.
Cuban Pete looks overpriced at 13/2. His new rating of 120 looks workable and is only 5lb higher than his last win. He is the only horse in the field who has won over the distance or on the good going.
Stable jockey Charlie Deutsch is in the saddle again with a 33% strike rate over the last 14 days winning 5 from 15 races. He has rode the horse on 14 occasions winning twice.
In my opinion Cuban Pete has taken time to psychologically recover from his fall at the first at Sandown in February. Whilst he has never been a splendid jumper he looks to have had a couple of races where he has not been so sure of himself as normal which is quite understandable as that was his first fall in a race. It can take a few races for a horse to regain confidence after something like that and I would hope he has his confidence back now under the patient training of Venetia Williams.
If he is back to his normal self he could prove difficult to beat.
Cuban Pete Win 6/1 Bet365 Bog