Venetia Williams On Saturday 4 December
Venetia Williams Saturday
Having recently fallen under the spell of Venetia Williams success many punters will abandon their sensibilities over the weekend and will be backing some inappropriate chasers to win. Venetia’s recent success is not in dispute and I think following her chasers at this point in history is a good idea.
In order to try to stay ahead of the curve we need to consider which runners on Saturday to back as she has six out. The best angle to take at the moment is to follow the chasers and ignore both the hurdlers and the national hunt flat runners no matter how tempting they might look. As all her runners tomorrow are chasers so this does not help us to decide!
The first horse Venetia Williams is fielding on Saturday is Brave Seasca (12.12 Chepstow) who is ridden by Miss Lucy Turner who claims a useful 7lb. At best I think the gelding can get a place. This might make him a useful addition to a Placepot to try to bump up the value. I would urge caution as although he is likely to come on for his first outing over fences it might take a few more races for him to win one. I would want to watch him over fences again and see improvement before I could recommend him. Lucy has not won a chase yet this season but has come close a couple of times and has won 5 from 45 over the last 5 years.
We can safely remove Eleanor Bob (12.20 Aintree) from the final choices as priced at 100/1 she realistically needs everybody else to fall or pull up to win. As there are only four horses in the race it is not beyond the realms of possibility but I would suggest it is unlikely.
Things get a bit more serious with the next runner from this stable. Pink Legend (12.55 Aintree) is joined by stable jockey Charlie Deutsch for this chase. He has raced her on thirteen occasions winning 4 of them so he knows how to get the best out of this mare. He has a 21% win rate over the last 14 days and has won 4 races from 19 runs. Three of the wins were chases. Pink Legend won on her reappearance and has actually won on 4 of her 5 lifetime reappearances, 3 of which were about this time of year. She looked better than ever on her reappearance and even though she went up 7lb for the class 2 win may have another win up her sleeve. At 7yo and in her prime she looks progressive enough to shake off the inconvenience. She is likely to try to lead or race prominently stalking the leader and keeping him honest. Pink Legend will happily race over most types of going with one of her best performances coming on soft in April in a listed race. It would not surprise me if in her current mood she completes the hat trick but she is backable at an EW price and that is my recommendation. 6/1 EW Ladbrokes 1/5 1-4 bog is slightly lower value than the 13/2 Bet365 are currently offering but the amount of places Ladbrokes are offering is higher so it makes sense to drop half a point for the extra place.
Moving swiftly on it is time to evaluate the chances of Venetia’s runner in the 1:22 Chepstow – Laskalin. He has been plying his trade in France where he won 4 of his 9 chases and was sold to his new stable in February. This is a trial for the Welsh Grand National so connections must think a lot of him. His first run for the stable was unimpressive but in my humble opinion the 6yo was being raced over an inadequate trip as he generally needs Saturday’s longer trip to shine. He should go fine on the ground but would prefer a bit more cut. He has won 4 races with higher prize money than Saturday’s race which leads me to believe he should be fine in this class of race. Miss Lucy Turner will be riding and claims a very useful 7lb which should make the pairing competitive. I will recommend this selection as EW as I wish to see Laskalin run in more races in this country before I put him up as a win. The price is 17/2 1/5 1-3 with William Hill. It is not best odds but Bet365 is offering a lower price and I cannot see the price going up.
Her last runner of the day is Didero Vallis (2.40 Aintree) who is a good class 3 horse and a decent chaser. He has not won a race in a higher class than that in the last 10 attempts and with odds of 25/1 I see no reason why he would win this grade three competition. Venetia is fielding two in this race and stable jockey Charlie Deutsch has chosen to ride Achille. He has put in the best performances of his life in the last three runs according to rpr ratings but I think he would have to improve again to win this. Achille has been backed in from 16/1 to 12/1 but is this the Venetia effect, do people think he will win or are they just chasing the place money? The lightly raced 11yo gelding is consistent but has not won since 2019. As there are 22 runners declared to race this marathon distance it is possible he will get placed as the bookies will be paying out on a decent amount of places but I can see the win eluding him again as there are some very good horses with decent market support in this race. Although I am more than happy to chase the place money in a race like this which has a high amount of places available from some bookmakers my gut instinct is to leave it alone
Recommendations:
12.55 Aintree Pink Legend EW 6/1 Bet365 1/5 1-4 bog
1.22 Chepstow Laskalin EW 17/2 William Hill 1/5 1-3