AW at Newcastle on 26/10/2021
Newcastle 26/10/2021
4.00 Newcastle
2m½f (2m56y) Betway Apprentice Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)
The first race is not exactly high quality and three horses stood out to me: Dreambird, First Charge and Nataleena. I spent quite some time deciding between them as they all have their merits.
I settled on the Mark Loughnane trained First Charge. He won at 40/1 last time out at Wolverhampton on his second run for his new stable. His trainer when asked about the improvement by the stewards said he had improved significantly for the up in trip to Tuesday’s distance. Looking at the sectional times for that race nothing could touch him from 2f out and he had been traveling quickly over the last four furlongs. He was top weight, cruised home and looked a different class to the other horses in the race. Physically this 4yo year old son of Dansili looks too impressive to stay in class six for much longer.
I like Oisin Mcsweeney. He is a good claimer with a 1 in 6 overall strike rate this GB season. Out of 22 Aw runs on 4yo+ horses this GB season he has finished first, second, or third in 11 of them. Claiming 3lb today will be useful to the chances of First Charge as he was raised 4lb for his win.
Bearing in mind there was a guide price of 5/1 it is disappointing to see it open up at 7/2 with Bet365
First Charge WIN 7/2 Bet365 Bog
4.35 Newcastle
1m4½f (1m4f98y) Betway Casino Handicap (Class 6) (3yo+ 0-65)
Tommy R looks the one to beat in this. It was another race that took a long time to figure out with Sophosc being the main danger to the selection.
Tommy R looked very much like he was going to win a class 5 race last time out. He put in a good run and only lost out in the last half furlong coming 4th by 2 ½ lengths.
He will appreciate the drop in class and should do well back in this company. Another run like his last could be enough to seal the deal here. Judging by his last run the trip will suit him and this time he will be fresher as he won’t be coming off the back of a 90 day break.
Tommy R WIN 9/2 Bet365 Bog
5.10 Newcastle
1m2f (1m2f42y) Betway Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85)
The Charlie Fellowes trained Purple Ribbon feels like the correct choice in this race. This lightly raced filly has raced well on the all-weather over 1m so far during her brief career. She looks like she will get 1m2 based on those runs and her breeding. She handles the all-weather surface and has the best form on offer. At this stage of her career it is likely she could improve again for the run last time out. As long as she takes to Newcastle in the same way she did to Chelmsford we’ll be in business.
Last time I felt that Callum may have given her a bit much to do but it was still a good run. Callum shepherd is on board again today having rode her for both of her runs so will know what needs to be done.
Purple Ribbon WIN 9/4 Bet365 bog
5.40 Newcastle
1m (1m5y) MansionBet Proud Partners Of AWC Novice Stakes (Class 5) (3yo+)
Global Walk feels like the elephant in the room as everybody does their best to ignore his credentials.
The way I see things is that with Saeed’s training facilities he is likely to have progressed at home since we last saw him 179 days ago in April. Saeed is good at bringing horses racing after a break and having them as sharp as a pin for their races.
At the time of writing Saeed bin Suroor has a 42.9% win rate at Newcastle this year and it is hard to ignore any runner that he runs on this course.
I don’t think the slow going suited him last time and his only other run was his debut so it feels unfair to judge him on that. My supporting evidence for this is that Society Rock’s progeny prefer good ground.
Hector Crouch is riding and is in good form with a 22% strike rate over the last 14 days.
Global Walk Win 6/1 Bet365 Bog
6.40 Newcastle
6f Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+ 0-75)
At this stage I am unfortunately beginning to lose the ability to concentrate beyond picking the horse due to the level of the noise coming from the “musical” family next door. Stepped down in class East Street Revue looks like an excellent EW bet with a good chance of winning.
East Street Revue EW 13/2 William Hill 1/5 1-4