The Siren Call Of The Odds On Favourite
I must warn you there is going to be some maths involved today but I will keep it simple whilst explaining everything as I go.
Every day we see odds on favourites on the race cards. Tempting though they may be it is important to understand the logistics of betting on such opportunities.
What might happen if we were for example to bet a number of 1/4 (1.25) selections. We’ll use £1 stakes for this exercise, add zeroes at your leisure…!
Bet 1 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £0.25 profit so far
Let’s go again…
Bet 2 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £0.50 profit so far
This is easy…she was a different class!
Bet 3 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £0.75 profit so far
Low hanging fruit! Godolphin rule!
Bet 4 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £1.00 profit so far
Stick or twist?
Bet 5 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Lose = - £1.00 = £0.00 profit so far
But it’s easy to win at 1/4 (1.25), right? We just did it four times before that one lost. Surely we were unlucky. He was hampered 1f out and couldn’t get his run together which handed the market steamer the race on a plate. Not our fault…
Bet 6 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Lose = -£1.00 = -£1.00 loss so far
Pants! The other jockeys must have been feeding him carrots on the way around.
At these odds we now need four £1 bets in a row just to break even and eight £1 bets to make £1.00 profit.
At this point I would suggest we stop doing our theoretical cherries and take a step back to look at the situation that developed.
The psychology is interesting here as generally the horse player has a memory of things going well. Betting at these odds the number of winners outweigh the losers. This encourages the horse player to take the chance because they have a positive “gut feeling”. Humans are good at gauging probability vs success and a little primeval back corner of the brain will be sending out positive vibes relating to the bet.
Let’s speculate on what happened. The first bet was a proven champion running against lesser horses. The only way to lose would be trouble in running. The second bet was an Irish mare who had been beating the boys and was now running against a very small group of female horses. The third; an imposing looking Godolphin horse who was so good that frankly he looked confused at how he had ever ended up at Wolverhampton. William Buick was in the saddle and the pairing had a plum draw. The fourth selection was a horse we had been following throughout the season and was favourite for the big event and we simply could not see him beaten. The fifth was a horse who had come a good second last time out which happened to be the best form by far in a trappy race taking place on the AW. He was beat by an unraced horse which had a late price crash in the last 2 mins of betting. The sixth horse was later the same day in a different meeting. He was a different class to the other 5 but the other jockeys were canny and boxed him in knowing he needed to start his run early to build up the speed.
Looking at the selections you can see how each may have been tempting to the horse player. Short odds on shots are always going to look tempting. The horse player needs to understand there are occasions where odds on shots represent good value but it really depends on the race, the class and the animal.
All 1/2 (1.5) shots do not represent the same value. A 1/2 (1.5) favourite in a Group 1 field represents a very different level of consistency and quality than a 1/2 (1.5) favourite in Class 6 race yet they can be the same odds. The first horse is likely to be a legend of the sport and a large amount of people have formed the market to reflect this. The Class 6 favourite is, without wishing to offend anybody, the least low quality horse in a low quality race.
Don’t make the mistake of making an odds on horse a quick selection. There is just as much risk betting on an odds on selection as anything else due to the nature of the return.
It is up to the individual horseplayer to decide on what represents value and this is very often particular to the individual concerned. Some people will never bet on an odds on shot and can’t understand the mentality of people that do. After my former career as a bookie I can tell you the opposite is true too. Many people enjoy including an odds on favourite in their picks.
Let’s try another example with varied stakes. This horse player is having 5 singles at a big meeting on a Saturday.
Bet 1 £100 @ 5/1 (6) = win = £600 = £500.00 profit so far
Started with a winner
Bet 2 £500 @ 4/5 (1.8) = lose = -£500 = £0 profit so far
Why? Why does he keep backing that horse?
Bet 3 £200 @ 9/4 (3.25) = win = £650 = £450 profit so far
Won by 6 lengths!
Bet 4 £600 @ 1/2 (1.5) = win = £900 = £750 profit so far
Won like an odds on favourite should
Bet5 £150 @ 8/1 (9) = lose = -£150 = £600 profit so far
“That’s ok” he might think to himself. “I just got £900 back on race 4…”
Good Job! Our intrepid horseplayer is walking away in profit with a skip in his step. It is unlikely he will stop to consider that on the day he actually reduced his profit by £200 by betting on the odds on favourites! He will however remember getting the £900 pay out (only £300 of which was profit) after race 4 which may influence his decision to bet odds on next time!
It is not for me to say whether you should be betting odds on singles or not. It is up to the individual horse player evaluating the facts on hand to make such a decision regarding an odds on selection in a race. I can just present things as I see it.
Personally I have nothing against betting odds on singles but the horse needs to be both excellent and consistent. I don’t like it when the price is below 1/2 (1.5).
What do you think of betting odds on singles? Why not comment below? Please keep it civil guys!
The Clerk Of The Course & The Going
This image is taken from the www.turftrax.co.uk Website. The makers of the GoingStick
I’ve always found it interesting that individual horses like different types of ground. Some like to hear their hooves rattling off the surface and others love a good run in the mud. The physical attributes of the horse matter, but so does the horse’s actual preference. An example of this might be a horse that is built for good ground but loves the wet. His speed will not help him if he has no stamina to back up his enthusiasm.
The going refers to the level of the moisture content contained within the racing surface at a particular racecourse. Horses are usually suited to a certain type of ground, but some can be very versatile. Connections, particularly trainers, find the going description to be vital because of the individual requirements of each horse.
In betting terms if the horse you are choosing has previously ran well on a type of going then he should act on it again. It is unwise to think that if a trainer has left a horse in the race it must be fine with the going. The trainer might not know if the horse will get the going and could be taking a chance based on the horses physical attributes, family, runs on the gallops and any other information available! There are in fact many reasons a trainer could keep a horse in a race ranging from demanding connections to a desire to give a horse a run to get him race sharp.
It pays to look at the weather forecast for the race that you wish to bet on. Over my years working for Ladbrokes and BetFred I found people to be constantly and consistently surprised that the weather in Britain is changeable. It’s no good spending time choosing a horse and then being surprised the good ground you planned for has turned to soft because there was lots of rain overnight. I look up the post code of the racecourse on Google and type it into BBC weather. This allows me to see how conditions will change overnight and throughout the day. By doing this I can see if soft ground is likely to become heavy during the course of a meeting, or if good to soft will turn to good in the midday sun. As weather reports have become more accurate they have become an ever more important tool in the punters armoury.
To properly understand going conditions it is worth taking a moment to consider the job of the clerk of the course.
The clerk of the course is an incredibly important part of the racecourse team who is in charge of looking after the racing surface and keeping it in optimal condition. It is the job of the clerk of the course to evaluate the moisture content within the racing surface to determine the type of going the horses will be racing on. The going advertised by a racecourse is based on this judgement and the clerk will advise the media and trainers. If a trainer wants to know how the ground is developing before a race they can contact the clerk for up to date advice and to discuss the evolution of the surface.
In Britain the going on turf courses is normally presented in two forms; a written assessment and a numerical value. The written assessment is based upon what the clerk of the course feels the going actually is and the numerical value is the GoingStick reading.
The GoingStick is a surprisingly high tech tool. It looks like a shovel with a cross section at the bottom instead of the blade. There is a rectangular box attached to the shaft just underneath the handle which records information. It is pushed into ground which gives the first reading, then it is tilted to a 45 degree angle to give the second reading. This is repeated many times around the racecourse at marked datum points. The combination of the readings gives an indication of the amount the horses hooves will sink in to the ground and the traction they will have as they run.
The GoingStick reading can vary in what it represents from course to course due to soil types and the person using it. It does however give a very good guide.
By everybody using the same method this helps standardize ground types between different racecourses so one clerk of the course’s good to firm is not another clerk of the course’s firm.
Before the GoingStick was introduced it was left to the clerk of the course to come up with a going description based on experience, poking the floor with a stick and stamping and kicking the turf.
Jockeys and trainers don’t usually have GoingSticks so they dig their feet or sticks into the ground to form a judgement. They will happily argue this judgement with the clerk who has intensely studied the issue and has all the facts at hand.
When the weather has been too cold or wet there may need to be an inspection before racing is allowed to take place. Although a previous ground analysis has been offered the responsible thing to do in these conditions is make sure safe racing can occur. They can occur up to 5 days before a meeting to give people enough warning to be on guard or to change plans. They can also happen on the evening before a meeting or even all the way up to the start of racing. Predictions always border on the hopeful to the point that it can be a shock when a meeting gets cancelled due to the nature of the positive vibes being radiated by the clerk of the course whose job it is, after all, to ensure racing takes place if humanly possible.
Blog 15/2/22 - Bringing the sport in to disrepute
The importance of reputation or brand positivity cannot be underestimated by the international horse racing community. From the smallest betting shop punter, through to the governing bodies of the sport, it is essential we conduct ourselves in a positive manner in order for the sport to remain a popular part of our culture.
The sport and its viewers need to be aware that the attitudes of younger generations are changing. What was once seen as acceptable, part of the game, tradition or “bad behaviour” is now in many cases seen as unacceptable.
As the years go by people become less likely to work closely with an animal in their profession and have lost the ability to distinguish between a working animal and a pet, which may, or may not be a good thing. I would argue that it is good as welfare standards have improved dramatically throughout industry and private ownership.
There is a greater understanding of the sentience and needs of creatures and that they must be looked after properly. As the generations have progressed more and more people have grown up with this outlook. Any industry that deals with animals now has to guard reputation as much as profit in order to survive.
It shouldn’t be about doing one thing in public and another in private.
In today’s world of conspiracy theories, fake news, crazy forums and viral tweets it is easy to see how a member of the public might worry or obsess about the state of an industry that they realistically know little about apart from negative stream of information that inspires them to, if nothing else, care deeply about the welfare of the participants.
Because people really do want to see positivity where there was once the negative they will challenge the assertions of rule abiding folk who claim that in general, all is well. A “that is what I would say if I was covering up doing that” attitude can prevail.
Years ago when I was taught marketing I was told word of mouth was important, more so than any other type of advertising as it provided a personal recommendation to the consumer whether it be positive or negative. In the days before social media we were quaintly told that a happy person would tell one person about his experience and an unhappy one twenty. Imagine how that has been amplified through the social media that we have today.
Cheating and animal welfare are the main concerns of the non-racing public regarding horse racing.
The problem of cheating has been endemic throughout the sport since the first ancient human nobbled a race. We will never know whether the individual or group concerned capitalised on human greed, terrified a rider in to losing, poisoned an opponent’s horse, gave their own mount a potion to make him go faster or ran a ringer.
These things should not still be happening now. In most cases I am pleased to say they are not and occur only rarely.
The reputation of horse racing is cleaner now than it has ever been. The public used to hear about negative issues on a regular basis. Because they happened often they became part of the reputation of the sport and were amplified through newspapers, films, TV and books (I’m looking at you Dick Francis). The image of the sport is still recovering from the problems of the past.
It is more important than ever not to let standards slip. As these incidents become less commonplace they are picked up by the public in an ever more sensationalist way.
The administration of unauthorised medication and substances both to jockeys and horses is controlled in an adequate fashion with welfare at the forefront of everybody’s thoughts. People try very hard to maintain standards and get extremely annoyed by the reputational damage to the sport when somebody is breaking the rules.
A few years ago the mighty Godolphin (who were in no way complicit) had a trainer in Britain who took it upon himself to administer anabolic steroids to the horses in his charge. This was a terrible blow to the image of the racing industry. The massive doping case recently in the US was also very bad.
People from outside the sport do not understand the differences in regulations between countries when it comes to what can and can’t be administered and many wrongly think it is the same everywhere. This leads to confusion about welfare standards when talking on social media. Social media likes to think the horses are medicated up to their eyeballs.
Somebody from Britain may not realise that many substances that are ok to use in America or internationally are banned in Britain. Because of this they will assume it is the same in their country. And why wouldn’t they? Maybe I am ignorant or perhaps too idealistic but most sports have an overall governing body who internationally regulates such things or national bodies that meet and standardise.
People aren’t reading about the good because mainly the bad is sensationalised by the press as it generates more clicks/sales. A person with no interest in the sport may not care Adayar won the Derby from a bad draw but will care deeply that any horse has been mistreated.
We only have to look at America to see some of the animal welfare changes that are coming in with regard to banning the race whip in some states to understand how much the public cares about horse welfare.
Quite simply we need to publically impose a sizeable ban on anybody seen to mistreat a horse and to make it clear that such actions will bring the sport in to disrepute. Governing bodies need to be seen to take serious action. Pictures of a trainer having so little respect for a dead horse that he sits on it and makes a v sign and videos of trainers beating horses with sticks are gold to people who wish to cause damage to the sport.
If a race horse trainer is caught giving a horse something he shouldn’t it needs to be shown that the sport takes this seriously and a statement about the continuing pursuit of rule breakers needs to be released by the governing body concerned. It needs to make a strong show of this being utterly unacceptable.
In my opinion we need to treat rule breakers in a public manner once proven guilty. Governing bodies needs to publicise the details of any investigation to show transparency and method and highlight the punishment that has distributed. Ironically more short term publicity would be likely to inspire a long term reduction in the behaviors trying to be curtailed as trainers rely highly on their reputation.
We have to make more of publicising the sport in a positive fashion. Racing is one of the most visually impressive and exciting sports in the world.
Many of the trainers are doing well on social media but they need to pick up there game in many cases. It really is a no brainer for them. Increased social media interaction equals greater awareness, equals more horses in training. Each trainer is an ambassador to the sport and can help drive home the message that the horses are extremely well trained and cared for. I often see great videos and pictures of the horses on twitter. The amount of money and knowhow going into the public relations operations of the governing bodies and racecourses in all countries needs to be boosted in order to have a chance in the fightback against global misinformation.
We have to remember the horse racing enthusiasts of the future are connected to a fast moving stream of information that refines itself based upon past choices until it gets polarised in a particular way. By getting more positive stories out there we can really help to keep things at least neutral in the public conscience.
As I have started writing this I have realised reputation is a huge subject and is likely to be somewhat controversial with people who think all is well.
I imagine I will be writing more on this topic in the future.