The Siren Call Of The Odds On Favourite

I must warn you there is going to be some maths involved today but I will keep it simple whilst explaining everything as I go.

Every day we see odds on favourites on the race cards. Tempting though they may be it is important to understand the logistics of betting on such opportunities.

What might happen if we were for example to bet a number of 1/4 (1.25) selections. We’ll use £1 stakes for this exercise, add zeroes at your leisure…!

Bet 1 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £0.25 profit so far

Let’s go again…

Bet 2 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £0.50 profit so far

This is easy…she was a different class!

Bet 3 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £0.75 profit so far

Low hanging fruit! Godolphin rule!

Bet 4 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Win = £1.25 = £1.00 profit so far

Stick or twist?

Bet 5 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Lose = - £1.00 = £0.00 profit so far

But it’s easy to win at 1/4 (1.25), right? We just did it four times before that one lost.  Surely we were unlucky. He was hampered 1f out and couldn’t get his run together which handed the market steamer the race on a plate. Not our fault…

Bet 6 £1.00 @ 1/4 (1.25) = Lose = -£1.00 = -£1.00 loss so far

Pants! The other jockeys must have been feeding him carrots on the way around.

At these odds we now need four £1 bets in a row just to break even and eight £1 bets to make £1.00 profit.

At this point I would suggest we stop doing our theoretical cherries and take a step back to look at the situation that developed.

The psychology is interesting here as generally the horse player has a memory of things going well. Betting at these odds the number of winners outweigh the losers.  This encourages the horse player to take the chance because they have a positive “gut feeling”. Humans are good at gauging probability vs success and a little primeval back corner of the brain will be sending out positive vibes relating to the bet.

Let’s speculate on what happened. The first bet was a proven champion running against lesser horses.  The only way to lose would be trouble in running. The second bet was an Irish mare who had been beating the boys and was now running against a very small group of female horses. The third; an imposing looking Godolphin horse who was so good that frankly he looked confused at how he had ever ended up at Wolverhampton. William Buick was in the saddle and the pairing had a plum draw. The fourth selection was a horse we had been following throughout the season and was favourite for the big event and we simply could not see him beaten. The fifth was a horse who had come a good second last time out which happened to be the best form by far in a trappy race taking place on the AW. He was beat by an unraced horse which had a late price crash in the last 2 mins of betting. The sixth horse was later the same day in a different meeting.  He was a different class to the other 5 but the other jockeys were canny and boxed him in knowing he needed to start his run early to build up the speed.

Looking at the selections you can see how each may have been tempting to the horse player.  Short odds on shots are always going to look tempting.  The horse player needs to understand there are occasions where odds on shots represent good value but it really depends on the race, the class and the animal. 

All 1/2 (1.5) shots do not represent the same value. A 1/2 (1.5) favourite in a Group 1 field represents a very different level of consistency and quality than a 1/2 (1.5) favourite in Class 6 race yet they can be the same odds. The first horse is likely to be a legend of the sport and a large amount of people have formed the market to reflect this.  The Class 6 favourite is, without wishing to offend anybody, the least low quality horse in a low quality race.

Don’t make the mistake of making an odds on horse a quick selection.  There is just as much risk betting on an odds on selection as anything else due to the nature of the return.

It is up to the individual horseplayer to decide on what represents value and this is very often particular to the individual concerned.  Some people will never bet on an odds on shot and can’t understand the mentality of people that do.  After my former career as a bookie I can tell you the opposite is true too.  Many people enjoy including an odds on favourite in their picks.

Let’s try another example with varied stakes.  This horse player is having 5 singles at a big meeting on a Saturday.

Bet 1 £100 @ 5/1 (6) = win = £600 = £500.00 profit so far

Started with a winner

Bet 2 £500 @ 4/5 (1.8) = lose = -£500 = £0 profit so far

Why? Why does he keep backing that horse?

Bet 3 £200 @ 9/4 (3.25) = win = £650 = £450 profit so far

Won by 6 lengths!

Bet 4 £600 @ 1/2 (1.5) = win = £900 = £750 profit so far

Won like an odds on favourite should

Bet5 £150 @ 8/1 (9) = lose = -£150 = £600 profit so far

“That’s ok” he might think to himself. “I just got £900 back on race 4…”

Good Job! Our intrepid horseplayer is walking away in profit with a skip in his step. It is unlikely he will stop to consider that on the day he actually reduced his profit by £200 by betting on the odds on favourites! He will however remember getting the £900 pay out (only £300 of which was profit) after race 4 which may influence his decision to bet odds on next time!

It is not for me to say whether you should be betting odds on singles or not.  It is up to the individual horse player evaluating the facts on hand to make such a decision regarding an odds on selection in a race. I can just present things as I see it.

Personally I have nothing against betting odds on singles but the horse needs to be both excellent and consistent. I don’t like it when the price is below 1/2 (1.5).

What do you think of betting odds on singles?  Why not comment below?  Please keep it civil guys!