The ITV7 - Singles
This is the second part of my blog regarding the ITV7. The first part is also in the blogs section of this website.
The intrepid horseplayer will no doubt wish to cover the singles in the ITV7 as they are the most likely bets that will actually win. As an ex-bookie I can see the number of races that they have chosen to present to the consumer is cynical to say the least! The average punter might be able to hit a 20% hit rate. For the purpose of these examples let’s call him Sid. This would suggest the bookie is working on the horseplayer winning 1.4 of the 7 singles that he has placed. This would suggest that the most likely result is 1 winner with 0 on a bad day and 2 on a good day.
Favourites are more likely to win than other horses so imagine Sid scored one favourite the return might be:
1 point at 2/1 = 3 points
7 points – 3 points = -4 points
There is usually an odds on shot so let's say that was a winner too! Now there are two winners and the profit is:
1 point at 4/6 = 1.67
3 points + 1.67 points = 4.67 points
4.67 Points – 7points = -2.33 points
There will be at least one grumpy betting enthusiast (possibly called Sid) looking at this thinking “I would never back at that 4/6 price!”
Excellent! Let's say you picked the second favourite at 3/1.
Two winners and the profit is now:
3 points + 4 points = 7 points
7 points – 7points = 0 points.
Well done you broke even. I bet that still makes you grumpy!
We should investigate the same thing but with bigger prices. It’s a good day for Sid with his 20%-win rate. He’s had his Weetabix and Sid hits a 6/1 shot in the first but waits the rest of the card to discover he has had no more winners to go with it. You guessed it – he broke even.
For a punter of this calibre the most likely horse he would be scoring with in addition to this is again a favourite but we will be generous by looking at the other option and say that he got a 5/1 to go with it.
This happens:
6 points + 7points = 13 points
13 points - 7points = 6 points profit.
All good right!
No, not really. Sid has a poor next round, gets everything placed and is now losing to the bookies! He should have read my previous blog and wagered on the ITV7 placepot!
Whilst it is tempting to back all your ITV7 selections as singles it is better to focus on the runners that you are the most sure about. If you just back the horses you think have a good chance to win you are likely to much better off in the long term. It sounds logical, doesn’t it? The average punter may develop a fear of missing out (FOMO) and is more likely to remember the times he “lost” (zero sum) by not backing a winning horse than the times he won (zero sum) by not taking part. There is no reason not to back a horse EW or to miss a leg if you have decided the selection is a bit dodgy.
I will be writing more about the ITV7 along with many other topics in the future.
I wish you all the best of luck.