The Draw - Crunch Points
Having produced a good few draw guides, I thought I might take the time to explain some of the finer points over the course of a few blogs. The draw can have a massive effect on the chances of a horse winning. Before I go any further, I would like to point out to international readers that I am in fact talking about post position.
The number of runners will affect the draw so it won’t be the same for a 5f 8-runner race compared to a 5f 14-runner race.
One of the reasons which may be less obvious is the crunch point. This is not a technical term; indeed, I have taken the liberty of inventing it. I do however expect there is a highly technical name for the situation which I am not privy to. Tangential impact point, perhaps?
A crunch point is an area where horses are impositioned by the field moving towards the ideal racing position. When you are examining the draw and you see a row of good draws and then a bad one followed by more good ones this is almost guaranteed to be a crunch point. Crunch points are more likely to occur when the race starts near to a corner or where there is a formidable rail bias on a straight course. The shorter the race distance the bigger the effect of the crunch as there is less time to recover.
A jockey riding the crunch point will face an ever-diminishing wedge shape of clear space with the point of the wedge furthest away. The horse will be assuming that it is going to impact another horse and ideally will have a good trusting relationship with the rider. This is where an experienced, knowledgeable jockey is very important. A good jockey will have a feeling he is in a potential crunch point and will try to manage the start of the race accordingly to try to mitigate the effects.
Even if a horse is very fast coming out the stalls, he can still be affected by this. If you back a slow starting horse drawn from a crunch point it is incredibly unlikely that he will recover to win. Horses who require a lead or that race prominently will have their races wrecked unless they are much better than the other competitors. A horse who needs to be held up will also have issues trying to recover both the ground and the composure of the horse and jockey.
The crunch point is a little less likely to be as serious if there is a slow starting animal in the stall next to him that blocks the others coming across as quick.
A horse is more likely to get bumped running out of one of these stalls than any other. 2yo’s hate crunch points as they are not physically big enough to withstand being knocked about especially over a few races. A really big or intimidating horse can sometimes beat a crunch point due the others not knocking him off course on impact or not wanting to come into physical contact.
Hopefully I have helped you understand an important part of the draw and I will be writing more on the subject in the future.